Hi,
Two things before we jump in.
Rebound Capital is hiring an analyst to become the face of our brand. You should love digging into companies and be comfortable on camera. Think Joseph Carlson or Ben Felix: calm, rational, and not the type chasing whatever stock is hot this week. Your main job would be building out RC’s presence on YT/Insta and building on our research. If you think you are the right fit, apply here.
A few weeks ago, we asked you to share the best potential rebound opportunities and your thesis behind them. Thank you for the great response. An active community and people bouncing ideas off each other are an important part of investing. Otherwise, one risks being stuck in their own echo chamber. Special thanks to those who shared the thesis as well for their names.
We got hundreds of replies and comments, and as promised, we will share the whole list with you. We are also adding our take on the stocks most often pitched.
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The most frequently mentioned stocks
We will caveat the list below by saying that frequency should only be considered a measure of attention, not a measure of mispricing.
The full list is presented at the end of the article.
Four themes in the potential ideas shared
Here is how we will divide the ~90 names shared with us:
AI-driven de-rating: Names like IBM, Accenture, Adobe, Intuit, Gartner, RELX, FactSet, Fiserv, Coursera, Duolingo — The key reason for the drawdown in these names is the threat of AI disrupting their business models. Either by reducing switching costs or competitive advantage, or by denting future growth rates. The 2 key market segments most affected by this are SaaS and information services.
MedTech firms: Boston Scientific, Zoetis, Intuitive Surgical, Novo, Danaher, Abbott, Insulet, etc. These are quality franchises with deep switching costs and are trading at multiples not seen in years. Generally, the stocks are selling off due to a combination of increasing Chinese competition, the effect of GLP-1 drugs, and the consequent slowing of revenue growth rates.
Quality insurance companies de-rating: These are good businesses marked down on a narrative (this is the thesis and maybe wrong) rather than any deterioration in fundamental numbers. We got 3 insurance ideas: Kinsale, Brown and Brown, and Goosehead. These companies are in the insurance underwriting, broking, and distribution business. These were pitched by different subscribers. This is a good signal. When a whole industry or value chain is de-rated, it signals that the broader market has lost interest. In today's supercharged AI-stocks-driven markets, Insurance is probably too difficult and boring for most investors. There could be a potential opportunity here.
Payments: Many ideas came from the payments space: Adyen, Mastercard, Fiserv, and Western Union. Adyen was mentioned many times and was the best pitch amongst all ideas we received.
A few names we will caution against
Investing is all about placing your money where the ‘puck is going’. Essentially, we have to invest in companies whose market position and financial results are expected to do better than what the market is discounting currently. But not all cheap stocks are worth investing in, and not all drawdowns are potential rebounds.
Below are a few names we are wary of. This is because we see a potential for massive disruption to their core business, and in some cases we find those companies to be outside our circle of competence.
Western Union: There is a substitution threat to this business (Wise, Revolut, Remitly, Stablecoins)
Wolfspeed: This is a company out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Investing in such opportunities is a rare skill. They are in the Silicon Carbide market, where Chinese competition is intense
Jumia: No proven unit economics yet, as this is an early-stage company
Bloom Energy: The bear case can result in a large loss, despite the revolutionary technology.
Abaxx Technologies: This is a sub-scale business.
Coursera: Structurally exposed to AI disruption.
Micron: Forecasting the memory cycle is difficult, and one must have some edge there. We don’t.
Yancoal: Terminal value is in question here.
Cameco and URNM: Uranium commodity cycle dynamics need an in-depth study of geopolitics, supply-demand, and how the consumers are behaving. We don’t have any edge here, and this is a high-risk area.
We will always focus on Quality and margin of safety. At RC, we are strict and require both. In the above names, we feel that one of these two is missing. We could be wrong, but we will not invest in any names we don’t have a strong understanding of.
Our view on the 9 most cited ideas
IBM: The most cited but least interesting to us
I think there is a certain recency bias in this name popping up the most in our survey. 4 of the 5 replies with this name were received a day or two after the pre-announcement of earnings, where the stock dropped ~25% in a day.
We are sure AI will not replace mainframes in a hurry, but that does not excite us much. The key to IBM’s stock is the growth that its consulting division can deliver and, in the medium term, the quantum computing business.
We doubt whether we can estimate how IBM’s quantum division will do a few years out. The competition in this space will be fierce, and hence it is difficult to get too excited here. The consulting business will, in our estimate, continue to face headwinds as AI is implemented in the consulting process.
Adyen: The idea we see the highest potential in
We have deep-dived into Adyen on 2 occasions this year. Both times, we did not publish it as we think we still don’t understand the payments space well enough.
The bull case outlined by 2 of our subscribers was what we agree with. The key tenets there are that the drawdown is driven by multiple de-rating and not by any fundamental issue in the business. The company’s revenue growth guidance of 20%-22% missed market estimates in Feb’26, leading to a ~36% drawdown in the stock since then. Nothing is broken business-wise. Revenue is still growing >20% (in constant currency), EBITDA margins are >50%, and the balance sheet is healthy. The company’s moat keeps getting deeper, as its systems are integrated with larger companies (which pay lower margins and hence the compression in take rates). At ~25x PE ratio, we do not need any multiple re-rating for this stock to work. Also, the relative valuation gap versus Stripe is extreme (Stripe’s last private mark put it at roughly five times Adyen’s enterprise value on comparable volume and lower margins) and potentially points towards public market investors’ panic rather than a genuine signal that the business is structurally going to grow slower.
The bear case is that the growth keeps dropping from ~20% to the mid-teens and lower. This could result from a secular weakening in Adyen’s take rates. Another risk is that Adyen has been comparatively conservative on agentic payments and stablecoins as compared to Stripe.
Adyen reports on the 13th of August. We will revisit post that.
Boston Scientific:
Down from ~$110 to ~$50 over the last year. This is one of the highest quality med tech franchises in the world. Last year it had ~$20B in revenue with 70% gross margins and 80% cash conversions.
The key drivers of the drawdown were:
2 key franchises have stopped growing: Farapulse treats irregular heartbeat. BSX was the first one to come out with a product for this. It previously had the whole market to itself in 2024 and 2025. Its market share has now fallen as competitors have entered the field, with a 41% market share, behind Medtronic. Revenue has been flat for 5 quarters even as the market grew in the double digits.
Watchman is an implant that lets patients with irregular heartbeats stop taking blood thinners for life. BSX has 91% of the market share, but the market itself is now shrinking.
These 2 franchises are ~25% of the company’s revenue and were leading its growth. This slowdown has led to the sharp drawdown. The other 75% of the company is growing at ~7%, which is decent but not exciting.
The valuation is pretty reasonable at a 20x LTM PE ratio. This is a fair price for a quality compounder like BSX. But the key issue here is the lack of growth.
Kinsale:
Kinsale insures the tail events that other companies will not insure. For example, a contractor who has had 3 claims in 5 years, a nightclub, or a house in a hurricane zone.
Their key competitive advantage is their low (~10.3%) internal expense ratio, which is roughly half that of conventional insurers. They achieved this by always underwriting risk in-house, never delegating it to a third party, and owning their own technology. Their record is exceptional, with no bad underwriting year since 2009. It has a combined ratio of ~75% and a >20% ROE.
The key problem is that Kinsale lacks growth. Industry premium growth has gone from ~20% in 2022 to ~3%. Kinsale’s biggest division shrank ~33% last quarter because rivals are underwriting the same risks at a lower price. Not participating in bad business is the right call, but it does dent revenue and growth. The rest of the business has slowed down from 13% growth to ~4%.
Kinsale’s valuations are reasonable. At ~4x book value, we estimate the market is paying for ~5% growth in perpetuity. Kinsale can do better, but currently it has to come out of the cyclical downturn. This will take time. We find the stock to be at or close to fair value - but don’t see the valuation as anything exciting either.
We will dig more into this and come back with a deep dive if it looks attractive.
Zoetis:
This is a quality company trading at almost distressed valuations because management missed guidance and competition is increasing in its core companion animals market.
We are digging into Zoetis and are checking if this is a value trap:
Increasing competition in the companion animal space may lead to lower profitability and weak revenue growth. Zoetis is innovating and releasing new drugs, but the competition has genuinely ramped up its offerings, especially Elanco Animal Health. If gross margins weaken (they have not till now), the current ~11x PE ratio may turn into a ~20x PE ratio in no time.
Zoetis faces increasing market share erosion in many of its blockbuster drugs.
The consumer is now price-sensitive even in pet care. This sector may not be as recession-resistant as assumed previously.
The valuation is attractive based on headline numbers. This is one stock to keep on one’s radar.
Oracle:
Oracle is a levered bet on the AI capex cycle. The balance sheet is highly levered due to large capex on data centers and offers limited margin of safety in case of a downturn. Taking out large amounts of debt against future contracts that may not come to fruition is something we cannot invest behind. All hyperscalers have contract concentration risks (OpenAI and Anthropic), but Oracle is in the worst spot here.
Oracle’s moat is much weaker than Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, all of whom have their own custom ASICs business. This will matter more and more in the coming years, and we are not bullish on Oracle’s prospects versus these companies.
Intuit:
This is one of the SaaS stocks we are most interested in. The core tax and bookkeeping business is very resistant to AI. Any mistake in these segments results in a large financial loss. This makes it very difficult for a new AI-native firm to come in and disrupt Intuit. The AI labs will not want to get into a business with such complexity. The only real argument for disruption is that the owner of a super intelligent AI model will enter this space and Intuit will not be able to compete. Given the world we are heading into, where there are multiple capable models, we don’t see this happening.
In any case, INTU is best placed to supply AI models (which it can design on its own) to its customers for tax (tax filers) and accounting purposes.
Accenture:
We will avoid Accenture. The business has too many structural challenges due to AI. A few points to consider:
While OpenAI and Anthropic are now nearing $80B in combined ARR, Accenture’s AI revenue has been ~$2.7B in 2025. While a decent start, Accenture’s bookings fell by 3% in the last quarter, in local currency. This indicates the business is struggling to grow, and the new AI business is just offsetting the loss in revenue in traditional consulting.
Palantir, the Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google), and the LLM labs (Anthropic and OpenAI) are in the AI consulting business, with all of them deploying capital to send forward-deployed engineers to enterprise customers.
We don’t think Accenture is well-positioned in the coming years.
Sea/Grab:
We have looked at these names before and came away thinking that MELI is in an overall better position than these 2 companies. These are all e-commerce platforms that have expanded into other adjacent areas. Our MELI article would help you understand how Sea and Grab will use advertising to monetize their core e-commerce user base.
Full List of ideas sent by subscribers:
North America, large and mega capAbbott, Accenture, Adobe, Amazon, Boston Scientific, Booking Holdings, Danaher, Eli Lilly, IBM, Intuit, Intuitive Surgical, Mastercard, Microsoft, Nike, Novo Nordisk, Oracle, ServiceNow, Snowflake, Uber, Zoetis.
North America, mid cap and compoundersAddus HomeCare, Alexandria Real Estate, BellRing Brands, Brown & Brown, Copart, CoStar, Duolingo, Equifax, FactSet, Fiserv, Gartner, Goosehead Insurance, Ingredion, Insulet, Kinsale Capital, KKR, Lennar, MarketAxess, Paychex, Pool Corp, PTC, Qualys, Spotify, Tractor Supply, TransDigm, Ferrari.
Semiconductors, memory and hardwareMicron, SK Hynix, Wolfspeed, Mirion Technologies.
Energy, materials and special situationsAeroVironment, Bloom Energy, Cameco, URNM, Hawaiian Electric, Coursera, Western Union, Abaxx Technologies, TrueLeaf, Vireo Growth, Tiny Ltd, Yancoal.
International 3i Group, Adyen, Alibaba, Allwyn, BYD, Carrefour, Coupang, Dino Polska, dLocal, EssilorLuxottica, Grab, Jumia, MercadoLibre, Nu Holdings, On Holding, Porsche, Reply SpA, RELX, Sea Limited, Sixt, SoFi, Treasury Wine Estates, WiseTech Global.
Rebound Capital’s work is provided for informational purposes only, is intended solely for readers in the United States, and should not be construed as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. You should always do your own research.